Obama holds lead, but will race tighten?
politics, elections, news media

October 21, 2008

For the past four weeks, Barack Obama has held a consistent lead over John McCain in the polls. This morning, the Illinois senator is up by 5.9 points on the Yahoo! News dashboard, based on Real Clear Politics poll averages.

With these relatively stable numbers, why is it that many pundits are now asking, even anticipating: When will the lead start to shrink?

Because -- if history is a guide -- it definitely could.